A Synopsis and critique of forecasts of sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay, Alaska, in 1990
Fried SM and Cross BA. 1990. A Synopsis and critique of forecasts of sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay, Alaska, in 1990. Regional Information Report. Alaska Division of Commercial Fisheries. Central Region. Anchorage, AK
The total number of sockeye salmon forecasted to return to Bristol Bay in 1990 is 26,724,000. Runs are expected to exceed spawning escapement goals for all systems. Total projected sockeye salmon harvest is expected to be 15,989,000. Most of this harvest will be taken within Bristol Bay inshore fishing districts, but some has been allocated to fisheries occurring in June in the vicinity of Shumagin Islands and South Unimak under an existing management plan. The 1990 forecast was based on the ADF&G method which averaged results from three linear regression models based on the relationship between returns and either spawner-recruit, sibling, or smolt data. Based on the expected performance of several modifications of the ADF&G method, all available data was used to forecast 1990 runs to Nushagak and Togiak Districts, but data prior to the 1978 return year was omitted from calculations for Naknek-Kvichak, Egegik and Ugashik Districts. Although out of range data were not used in calculations, their occurrence suggested that age -2.3 predictions for Kvichak, Egegik, and Ugashik Rivers could be too low This could place that actual total return closer to the 33,994,000 upper limit of the 80% CI. The outlook for 1991-1993, based only on the spawner-recruit component of the ADF&G method, is for the total sockeye salmon run to Bristol Bay to be greatest in 1990 and least in 1991, mostly due to variations in the Kvichak River run. For all years examined, runs to all river systems are expected to exceed spawning goal requirements.
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Fried, Stephen; Cross, Beverly
- Date of Issue
- 1990-01
- Publisher
- Alaska Division of Commercial Fisheries. Central Region
- Units
- KATM
- Keywords
- Bristol Bay, environmental indicators, Katmai National Park And Preserve, salmon forecast, Sockeye Salmon, spawner recruit