Observed and projected ecological response to climate change in the Rocky Mountains and Upper Columbia Basin: A synthesis of current scientific literature

Ashton, Isabel; Ostermann-Kelm, Stacey; Rodhouse, Tom; Tonnessen, Kathy; Porter, Ellen; McWethy, Dave

Climate change is having significant effects on organisms and ecosystems worldwide, but changes in the western United States have been particularly rapid over the last 30 years. Resource managers in the West are being asked to manage for ecological responses to climate, but they have limited access to regional or local information on the observed and projected effects of climate change. In this report we synthesize information on the observed and projected responses of selected ecosystem properties and processes, organisms, and communities within the Rocky Mountains and Upper Columbia Basin (ROCO). As defined by climate and geopolitical boundaries, this region encompasses the Greater Yellowstone Area, the Crown of the Continent ecosystem, the Colorado Front Range, the Upper Columbia Basin, and 12 high-elevation units of the National Park System, and most of the U.S. portion of the Great Northern Landscape Cooperative. Our goals are to: highlight common themes in response to climate change so that resource managers can better identify system vulnerabilities, determine resource program needs, and develop conservation targets, and inform the development of the monitoring systems needed to assess climate change impacts and possible management actions.We focus on physical and ecological properties and processes, and resources (communities and species) that are relevant to land managers in the ROCO region, including air quality; ecological processes and properties, including biodiversity and productivity; phenology, connectivity, wildland fire, insect infestations, plant and wildlife disease, and invasion dynamics; communities of interest, including alpine and tree line, forests and woodlands, five-needle pines, aspen, sagebrush and grasslands, aquatic systems and wetlands; animal species, including grizzly bears, fish, amphibians, invertebrates, birds, pika, and ungulates. We found that some ecosystem properties, processes, and resources are being affected by warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns; this is supported by published evidence of observed responses to climate change within the last century and well-developed hypotheses and models that project a continued response during the next decade. The magnitude and direction of response varies, but these sensitive ecosystem properties, processes, and resources may provide strong indicators of climate change. Climate change indicators for the ROCO region include freshwater resources such as glaciers, wetlands, and fishes; wildlife and plant disease; wildland fire; insect infestations; alpine vegetation; phenology; butterflies; elk; and birds. For other ecosystem properties, processes, and resources, evidence of climate change has not been found and in many cases other stressors are likely to drive changes over the next century. For instance, grasslands and sagebrush are extremely vulnerable to changes in fire regimes and biological invasions. In other cases, we lack published evidence that links recent trends to climate change, but well-developed hypotheses suggest that the resource may be vulnerable in the future. For example, bats and mountain ungulates are expected to be sensitive to climate change. As temperatures and precipitation patterns change over the coming decades, a better understanding of how climate change affects resources will become critical to effective mitigation and management. Climate change will interact with multiple stressors, such as land-use change, atmospheric pollution, and invasive species, many of which are more proximate than climate change, making it difficult to predict changes. The only certainty is that ecosystem properties, processes, and resources will continue to change over the next century. Species will be lost, others will be gained, and disturbances will increase and alter the structure and function of ecosystems. Future management, monitoring, and research efforts will need to embrace these changing conditions.

Observed and projected ecological response to climate change in the Rocky Mountains and Upper Columbia Basin: A synthesis of current scientific literature

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