Environmental change and mammalian richness: Impact on preserve design and management in East Texas

Cameron, Guy; Seamon, Joshua; Scheel, D

Analyses by Geographic Information Systems (GIS) evaluated the effect of global climate change (GCC) on mammals in Texas with consideration of specific impacts in east Texas that could affect design and management of nature preserves such as the Big Thicket National Preserve. General circulation models (GCMs) were used to predict climate in Texas resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 and the Holdridge model of climate-vegetation association was used to predict distributions of vegetation under current and future climates. The warmer (and wetter for one GCM) climate predicted for Texas resulted in tropical forest and dry forest (and steppe and desert scrub for the drier climate) moving into the state. Effect of GCC on distribution of vegetation coupled with habitat specificities of insectivores (Insectivora), hares and rabbits (Lagomorpha), bats (Chiroptera), and rodents (Rodentia) were used to predict the impact of GCC on mammals in Texas. Effects of GCC on individual species of mammals varied by taxa, geographic locality, and climitic scenario, but no species was predicted to be extripated. As a result of species-level responses to GCC, shifts in geographic patterns of richness were also taxa and climitic-scenario specific. Notwithstanding a diverse effect at the species level suggesting that GCC operated at the scale of the individual species, community models led to the conclusion that such individualistic patterns may be created by community structure.

Environmental change and mammalian richness: Impact on preserve design and management in East Texas

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