Atlas of Climate Change Effects in 150 Bird Species of the Eastern United States
Matthews SN, O'Connor RJ, Iverson LR, Prasad AM. 2004. Atlas of Climate Change Effects in 150 Bird Species of the Eastern United States. USDA Forest Service. Eastern United States
This atlas documents the current and potential future distribution of 150 common bird species in the Eastern United States in relation to climate and vegetation distributions. Distribution data for individual species were derived from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1981 to 1990. Regression tree analysis was used to model the BBS data as functions of contemporary environmental variables. These predictor variables included the abundance of 68 tree species as determined by USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data, as well as 8 climate variables and 4 elevation variables. The model for each bird species is described. These models were then projected onto two scenarios of global climate change for which future distributions of the climate variables and tree species had previously been calculated. This allowed comparison of the future habitat for each bird species against its current modeled distribution. Summary statistics of the current and projected range and abundance within the Eastern United States are included. Depending on the global climate model used, as many as 78 bird species are projected to decrease by at least 25 percent, while as many as 33 species are projected to increase in abundance by at least 25 percent.