An expert opinion of when the Gulf of Mexico will return to pre-spill harvest status following the BP Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill

Tunnell, John

The BP Deepwater Horizon MC 252 Spill of National Significance (DWH oil spill) became the largest accidental marine oil spill in history after releasing over 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico from 20 April to 15 July 2010, a period of 87 days. Because of the high environmental and economic value of the Gulf of Mexico, extensive media coverage, public outcry, and scientific concern focused attention on the Gulf for months during mid 2010. An unprecedented response of 1000s of workers and 100s of boats and ships continued cleanup and assessment into the fall after capping the well in July. To understand the true magnitude of the response to the spill, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produces a monthly activity report entitled the "NRDA (Natural Resources Damage Assessment) by the Numbers" report, and on 1 December 2010 the report listed: 29,599 environmental samples collected for analysis; 37,183 NRDA laboratory analyses conducted; almost 30,000 total samples include those collected by 83 offshore research cruises, including 17,026 water samples, 3,806 sediment samples, 5,007 tissue samples, and 1,917 tarball samples; 34,768 images, and over 4,000 linear miles of shoreline surveyed. Regarding the overall economics of Gulf of Mexico commercial fisheries, fishermen harvested 1.27 billion pounds of shellfish and finfish that earned $659 million in total landings revenue in 2008 (NMFS 2010a). The economic multipliers of commercial fishing range from 2X to 3X dockside value, conservatively, to 8X-10X demonstrating the significant impact all along the value chain.2 It is not just fishermen that are impacted but also the processor, distributor, retail establishments, and restaurants. In response to economic losses caused by the spill, the Gulf Coast Claims Facility (GCCF) opened in June 2010 "as part of an agreement between the Obama Administration and BP to assist claimants in filing claims for costs and damages incurred as a result of the oil spill stemming from the Deepwater Horizon Incident".3 As of 13 December the GCCF had processed over 463,000 claims and paid out about $2.5 billion to over 166,000 individuals and businesses.4 One significant, but difficult to assess, economic sector which the Gulf Coast Claims Facility will have to deal with soon is the fishing industry of the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA Fisheries Service worked in concert with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and Gulf states to determine fishery closures in the northern Gulf of Mexico as a result of the DWH oil spill. This action was "a precautionary measure to ensure public safety and (to) assure consumer confidence in Gulf seafood" (NMFS 2010b). Closures started on 2 May 2010 in the area around the well blowout and continued to expand through the middle of July, peaking at 84,101 square miles or 34.8% of the Gulf of Mexico U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).5 Closures then decreased throughout the fall until 15 November when only the area around the MC252 well was closed, an area of 1,041 square miles or 0.4% of the U.S. Gulf EEZ. On 24 November an additional 4,213 square miles were added to the closure for royal red shrimp fishing only, as a result of the discovery of tar balls in some royal red shrimp trawls (NMFS 2010c). The purpose of this report is to provide an expert opinion to the Gulf Coast Claims Facility regarding the duration of any negative biological effects of the DWH oil spill on those species commercially harvested in the Gulf of Mexico (primarily shrimp, crabs, oysters, and finfish). Because of great variability of the environment and natural populations, present-day, as well as historical, information and data, will be utilized, along with the scientific literature to give the best informed estimate of when fishery populations will be back to pre-spill conditions.

An expert opinion of when the Gulf of Mexico will return to pre-spill harvest status following the BP Deepwater Horizon MC 252 oil spill

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