Probabilistic and Statistical Relationships between Number of Vehicles and Number of Visitors at a Geologic Site in a National Park
Crovelli R. 1994. Probabilistic and Statistical Relationships between Number of Vehicles and Number of Visitors at a Geologic Site in a National Park. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report. USGS Open-File Report: 94-560. Denver, Colorado
Develops the statistical relationships between number of vehicles at a trailhead and number of visitors at the associated attraction. We are interested in probabilistic and statistical relationships between the number of vehicles and the number of visitors at a site in a national park. For example, let us consider the Arches National Park within which is the developed area of the Wolfe Ranch parking lot approximately 1.5 miles from the geologic site of Delicate Arch (see Figure 1). In this study the developed area will refer to the immediate area encompassing the Wolfe Ranch parking lot and the Delicate Arch. A visitor of the developed area arrives in a vehicle parked in the Wolfe Ranch parking lot, walks around in the developed area, and may or may not be at the Delicate Arch site at any one point in time. Let N: Number of vehicles at one time in the parking lot. N is a discrete random variable that can take on the values n = 0, 1,2,... Let X : Number of visitors at one time at the site. X is a discrete random variable that can take on the values x = 0, 1,2,... Consider the conditional probability P(X>x\N = n) = a Two problems of interest are 1. Given n and x, find a. Find the probability a that there are at least x visitors at a time at the site when n vehicles are in the parking lot. 2. Given x and a, find n. Find the number of vehicles n in the parking lot such that the probability of at least x visitors at one time at the site is equal to a. Application of this methodology would be the following situation: Based on survey data, the National Park Service has found that many visitors feel unacceptably crowded if there are 30 or more people at one time at the arch. Limit the number of vehicles n allowed in the parking lot such that 30 or more people are at the arch only 10% of the time
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Crovelli, Robert
- Date of Issue
- 1994
- Units
- ARCH , HIST
- Keywords
- Arches National Park, Carrying Capacity, Carrying Capacity (VERP), ehistory, geological, Geology, History, National Park, number, probability, Probability statistics, Site, Statistics, Vehicles, VERP, Visitor capacity, Visitors