Statistical Methodology for Analysis of Vehicle Encounter Rates in a National Park
Crovelli R. 1995. Statistical Methodology for Analysis of Vehicle Encounter Rates in a National Park. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report. USGS Open-File Report: 95-234. Denver, Colorado
Develops the statiscal methodology for carrying capacity, both estimating sample size and testing the results of monitoring results. The National Park Service is about to embark on a major data collection effort at all of the national parks to address an important problem in visitor use management. For example, each summer the National Park Service needs to sample and compute vehicle encounter rates on a section of the Salt Valley Road in the Arches National Park, southeastern Utah. Their only concern is with use that occurs during the mid-day peak hours. Each observation consists of a round-trip drive to Klondike Bluffs. The number of motorized vehicles encountered (met or passed) are counted and recorded. A vehicle is defined as anything that can be steered and has a motor. A motorcycle, RV, vehicle pulling a trailer, NPS vehicle, highway maintenance equipment, ranch truck and normal passenger vehicle are each counted as one vehicle. Because the measured indicator is encounters per hour, it is critical to know the exact amount of time spent actually driving on this particular route. An example of the calculation of the encounters per hour is the following: 4 vehicles encountered in trip -s- 0.75 hours of observation = 5.33 vehicles encountered per hour. The National Park Service has established that an encounter rate of 5 or more vehicles per hour is unacceptable. However, it is impractical to avoid this condition 100% of the time. Therefore, the goal is to have less than 5 encounters per hour at least 90% of the time during peak hours. We need to determine with confidence whether existing conditions are less than 5 encounters per hour at least 90% of the peak hours. Statistical methodology developed for making these determinations follows.
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Crovelli, Robert
- Date of Issue
- 1995
- Units
- ARCH , HIST
- Keywords
- Analysis, Arches National Park, Carrying Capacity, Carrying Capacity (VERP), ehistory, History, Methodology, National Park, Probability statistics, statistical, Statistics, Statistics, Vehicle, VERP, Visitor capacity
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Human Use | Visitor and Recreation Use | Visitor Use