Climate change scenario planning: A tool for managing parks into uncertain futures

Weeks, Don; Malone, Patrick; Welling, Leigh

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for the National Park Service (NPS), as science reveals a range of potential climate futures faced by land managers. Such climate-related influences as increases in air temperature; sea-level rise; and changes in precipitation, wind speed, and extreme weather events test traditional park planning and management as parks move toward these uncertain futures. In traditional park planning, a preferred alternative is selected for park management to follow for the next 15 to 20 years, and management works toward that desired outcome. Today, in a world of climate change, new planning processes are needed to manage into uncertain futures. We describe the process of scenario planning, which the NPS Climate Change Response Program is exploring as a tool for park planning and management in an era of uncertainty. We discuss park-specific experiences gained over the past three years from the exploration and application of climate change scenario planning in which managers are presented with a series of plausible futures. Since 2008, the National Park Service has completed five case studies to test the use of climate change scenario planning, with favorable reaction. Under guidance of the Global Business Network, an international pioneer in the evolution and application of scenario planning, the National Park Service has begun to focus on educating its staff and partners on the utility of climate change scenario planning through several training workshops to better assist in its landscape adaptation efforts and other management responses.

Climate change scenario planning: A tool for managing parks into uncertain futures

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