Predicting the effects of climate change on migratory birds and bats: quantifying the Gulf of Maine flyway: 2012 migration monitoring report.

Grunzel, David; McCabe, Jennifer; Olsen, Brian

From Official Introduction: “Migration represents a critical time within the life cycle of many species. As much as 80-90% of annual mortality may occur during the migratory period (Sillett and Holmes 2002; Newton 2007). Thus, high quality “stop-over” habitats that provide species with food, rest, and a low risk of predation can lower the risk of migration (Bibby and Green 1981; Schaub and Jenni 2000, 2001; Hedenström 2009) and contribute to the long-term viability of migratory populations (Newton 2006; Haramis and Kearns 2007). The relative quality of migratory routes and migratory stop-over sites, however, have changed in the past under shifting climates and land use activities are expected to do so again in the future. To adequately manage migratory species across their range, we must understand the current use and value of migratory habitat. This will allow us to A) maximize the value of federal lands for migratory species, B) identify the habitat characteristics and species that are most likely to be impacted by climate change due to alterations in route quality, and C) identify changes in route use and route quality due to climate change when it occurs. Across the western North Atlantic coast, documented corridors for migratory movement include the Connecticut River Valley, the southern New England coastline (including Cape Cod), and the Bay of Fundy (Lincoln et al. 2002). Little is known, however, about the relative use of the Atlantic Coast and the thousands of coastal islands from Southern New England to the Bay of Fundy by migratory species. Radar and ceilometry studies have revealed large movements of birds and bats moving well offshore in the Gulf of Maine, and these movements were not always the result of bad weather conditions. This suggests that many species purposefully make large-scale movements over the water (Drury and Keith 1962; Williams et al. 1981; Richardson 1978; McClintock et al. 1978). Shorelines are widely known to concentrate migratory movements of both birds and bats, which typically avoid long, open-water movements without favorable weather conditions (Lack 1960; Richardson 1978; Yaukey and Powell 2008). The east-west orientation of the Maine coastline has the potential to concentrate large numbers of migratory species, especially if they gather along the coast to await favorable weather conditions before crossing the Gulf of Maine during the fall. Well-known migratory concentrations due to similar geographic arrangements are regularly seen in North American along the shores of Cape Breton, the Great Lakes, the Gulf of Mexico, Cape May, and Key West. To conserve high latitude birds and bats in an era where climate change is expected and may accelerate other changes, we must understand what migratory species utilize the Maine Coast, how key areas support the high energetic demands of migration, and how consistent this use is from year to year. Short-term efforts are important, but as migratory behavior is inherently variable (and likely to be more so under climate change and landscape development), we need to establish a monitoring platform across the Gulf of Maine that will allow managers to predict animal land use based on weather, location, and habitat attributes. Such a platform will allow us to develop a predictive model of animal migration that allows for more effective, comprehensive management.”

Predicting the effects of climate change on migratory birds and bats: quantifying the Gulf of Maine flyway: 2012 migration monitoring report.

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