Using landscape patterns, climate projections, and species distribution models to map future potential habitats for desert tortoise, Shivwits milk-vetch, and American pika in Zion National Park, Utah
Thoma D and Shovic H. 2013. Using landscape patterns, climate projections, and species distribution models to map future potential habitats for desert tortoise, Shivwits milk-vetch, and American pika in Zion National Park, Utah. Park Science. 29(2):1,14-22
Quantitative assessment of climate effects is needed to help understand the spatial distribution of change to species habitat and species distribution that may occur in the next 100 years. This can provide insight for developing mitigation and adaptation actions for species survival on a park-level basis. We modeled the potential impacts of projected temperature change on habitat suitability for desert tortoise, Shivwits milk-vetch, and American pika in and around Zion National Park, Utah. We used species distribution models with historical temperature data from weather stations and climate projections of temperature to determine the location and suitability of present-day potential habitat and potential habitat in the year 2100. Our analysis was not intended to predict habitat quality or how species might respond. Rather, it was intended to map the location of potential or suitable habitat in Zion. Results indicated suitable habitat may increase in area for Shivwits milk-vetch, increase in suitability for the desert tortoise, but decline in area for American pika. Based on these findings, we made interpretations that summarized species vulnerability and potential impacts on species habitat and on park management. This type of information can serve as a starting point for developing a practical adaptation framework that considers potential management options at different temporal and spatial scales.
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Thoma, David; Shovic, Henry
- Units
- YOSE , ZION
- Keywords
- american pika, Climate Change, climate projections, Desert Tortoise, lapse rate, mapping habitat changes, NCPN Climate Article, Shivwits milk-vetch, species distribution model, vulnerability assessment