Virgin Island Bays: Modeling of Water Quality and Pollution Susceptibility
Nichols M, Kuo A, Cerco C, Peebles P. 1979. Virgin Island Bays: Modeling of Water Quality and Pollution Susceptibility. Island Resources Foundation. St. Thomas, Virgin Islands
A pollution susceptibility model is developed to quantify the flushing action of Virgin Island bays. It provides an estimate of the average concentration that results from a unit rate of discharge under "worst case" conditions of low wind and waves when the tide dominates flushing action. Of the four different types of bays, i.e. (1) open, (2) partly-closed, (3) restricted and (4) closed, the closed bays or salt ponds backed by large watersheds are the most susceptible to pollution. By contrast, the open bays with high ocean exchange are the least susceptible. Of the 23 partly-closed bays, Princess Bay, Vessup Bay,Krum Bay Cruz Bay, Chocolate Hole and Flamingo Bay are more susceptible than other partly-closed bays. A model of the Mangrove Lagoon and Altona Lagoon is developed to predict the distribution of pollutant concentrations that result from different decay rates and different discharge points. A change in evaporation had little effect on the pollutant distribution in the lagoons. The pollution susceptibility model is useful for coastal planning to evaluate the effect of alterations and development around selected bays and to site regional facilities.