A Reassessment of Florida Panther Viability Analysis and Recovery Efforts from Multiple Perspectives (DRAFT)

Maehr, David; Lacy, Robert

We used Vortex (version 7) to model Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) population viability from five perspectives. Independent analyses were based on demographic inputs provided by a federal field biologist, a state field biologist, a university conservation biologist, a university landscape ecologist, and an NGO population biologist. Despite a lack of full consensus regarding the inputs and results of earlier modeling efforts (Seal et al. 1989, Seal and Lacy 1992), management of this endangered subspecies moved forward first with a plan for captive breeding and more recently with genetic restoration. Since 1994, 8 female cougars, introduced from Texas, have produced at least 15 hybrid kittens. Panther recovery has been controversial, with genetic restoration efforts being questioned by analyses which suggest that demographic stability of the population may obviate the need for such a radical approach to small population management (Maehr and Caddick 1995). Our analyses suggest that the Florida panther has a high (>0.98) probability of persisting for 100 years. However, an apparent capability for rapid population growth is countered by genetic problems that will likely become increasingly severe with time - especially beyond 100 years. Genetic erosion can be forestalled or halted by allowing for population expansion, but the conservation status of potential panther habitat in Florida is uncertain. We recommend an approach that incorporates genetic introgression, a reconsideration of rapid population growth in captivity, and an increased emphasis on expanding the current range of the Florida panther. Improvement in habitat trend data will make substantial improvements to future simulations.