Projection of red spruce (Picea rubens Sargent) habitat suitability anddistribution in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA
Koo K, Madden M, Patten BC. 2014. Projection of red spruce (Picea rubens Sargent) habitat suitability anddistribution in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. Ecological Modeling
Red spruce (Picea rubens Sargent) has exhibited widespread growth decline and high mortality for thelast half century in the eastern United States. Good prediction of this species’ distribution in relation toenvironmental conditions is critical for effective management. This study projects red spruce distributionin response to multiple causal mechanisms in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) of theSouthern Appalachian Mountains by coupling a temporal simulation model of tree growth (ARIM.SIM)to a species distribution model (ARIM.HAB). ARIM.HAB computed habitat suitability, estimated fromARIM.SIM-generated red spruce growth, for every spatial 30 m grid cell in GSMNP. ARIM.SIM showedthat different factors were responsible for habitat suitability and growth at higher vs. lower elevations.The air pollution variables (acid rain and cloud immersion frequency) caused low habitat suitability athigher elevations (1800–2028 m). Reduced air pollution but greater stress from climatic variables (hightemperatures, reduced precipitation) caused medium suitability at lower elevations (1400–1600 m). Andless stress from air pollution and climate variables combined with ample water to produce highest suit-ability at intermediate elevations (1600–1800 m). The projected range was verified with an existinggeospatial database for red spruce and showed excellent correspondence with present-day distribution(AUC = 0.99, kappa = 0.87 and TSS = 0.88). This research shows that species distribution models coupledwith a process-based temporal simulation models can improve the precision and accuracy of, respectively,habitat suitability and range projections for species at local scales.
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Koo, Kyung-Ah; Madden, Marguerite; Patten, Bernard
- Units
- GRSM
- Keywords
- Climate Change, GRSM-00175, Picea rubens, Red Spruce, red spruce habitat model (ARIM.HAB), southern Appalachian mountains, species distribution model (SDM), Spruce-Fir Forest, tree growth simulation model
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Forest/Woodland Communities