Climate change scenario planning for northwest Alaska parks: Cape Krusenstern and Bering Land Bridge.

Winfree, Robert; Rice, Bud; Fresco, Nancy; Krutikov, Lena; Morris, John; Callaway, Don; Mow, Jeff; Swanton, Nancy

Changing climatic conditions are affecting conditions in and around National Park Service (NPS) areas in Alaska. NPS undertook scenario planning as an innovative approach to science-based decision-making in the face of an uncertain future. These climate change scenarios are plausible yet divergent futures based on the best available current knowledge of driving climate variables. These scenarios will help prepare NPS Alaska park managers to make informed decisions for future outcomes. Climate change is occurring at a global scale, and its effects are felt very strongly in Alaska. We can no longer manage for old goals and priorities assuming a static climate. Given the complexities and multiple disciplines involved with climate-change challenges, collaboration and knowledge sharing among multiple disciplines are essential. Scenario planning is an educational process that helps park employees and others understand climate trends; anticipate future changes that may affect resources, assets, and operations in parks and surrounding areas; and consider a range of possible climate change response strategies. This effort represents a collaboration between the National Park Service (NPS) and the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP), whose mission is to “develop plausible scenarios of future conditions through a diverse and varied network of people and organizations, which allow better planning for the uncertain future of Alaska and the Arctic.” In this report, we describe the Climate Change Scenarios Planning (CCSP) effort at several different levels. First, we introduce the rationale and need for such an effort, at the national, statewide, and local level. Next, we provide background on the particular Global Business Network (GBN) methods used in this project – as well as in parallel projects for the other park networks in Alaska. This background places GBN methods in the context of other possible planning tools. In this context, we discuss modifications that were necessary to best address the particular challenges of climate change planning. To help inform consideration of a range of possible futures, workshop participants were provided with data, maps, and summaries of climate projections specific to the interior Arctic region (Appendix D, Appendix E). Other climate change information, including drivers of change (Appendix F) and effects of those drivers (Appendix G), were shared prior to and during the webinars and workshop. This information was drawn from multiple sources. Prior to embarking on the project, NPS prepared regional summary documents on climate change impacts, including talking points on impacts to Alaska’s regions. More quantitative assessments of ongoing change and projected future change to multiple climate variables were obtained from SNAP data and from peer-reviewed scientific literature. In the Workshop Group Products section, we provide significant detail with regard to the products and outcomes of the scenarios process. This includes intermediate data from the brainstorming processes that took place during the three-day Scenarios Planning Workshop, although some of these products are linked only via appendices. These details are included in order to allow this paper to serve as not only a project summary, but also a roadmap or case study for any similar efforts that may take place in the future, either in Alaska or elsewhere...

Climate change scenario planning for northwest Alaska parks: Cape Krusenstern and Bering Land Bridge.

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