Climate change scenario planning for southwest Alaska parks: Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve, Kenai Fjords National Park, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Katmai National Park and Preserve, and Alagnak Wild River
Winfree R, Rice B, Fresco N, Krutikov L, Morris J, Callaway D, Weeks D, Mow J, Swanton N. 2014. Climate change scenario planning for southwest Alaska parks: Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve, Kenai Fjords National Park, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Katmai National Park and Preserve, and Alagnak Wild River. Natural Resource Report. NPS/AKSO/NRR—2014/832. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado
Changing climatic conditions are affecting conditions in and around National Park Service (NPS) areas in Alaska. NPS undertook scenario planning as an innovative approach to science-based decision-making in the face of an uncertain future. These climate change scenarios are plausible yet divergent futures based on the best available current knowledge of driving climate variables. These scenarios will help prepare NPS Alaska park managers to make informed decisions for future outcomes. Climate change is occurring at a global scale, and its effects are felt very strongly in Alaska. We can no longer manage for old goals and priorities assuming a static climate. Given the complexities and multiple disciplines involved with climate-change challenges, collaboration and knowledge sharing among multiple disciplines are essential. Scenario planning is an educational process that helps park employees and others understand climate trends; anticipate future changes that may affect resources, assets, and operations in parks and surrounding areas; and consider a range of possible climate change response strategies. This effort represents a collaboration between the National Park Service (NPS) and the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP), whose mission is to “develop plausible scenarios of future conditions through a diverse and varied network of people and organizations, which allow better planning for the uncertain future of Alaska and the Arctic.”
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Winfree, Robert; Rice, Bud; Fresco, Nancy; Krutikov, Lena; Morris, John; Callaway, Don; Weeks, Don; Mow, Jeff; Swanton, Nancy
- Date of Issue
- 2014-07
- Publisher
- National Park Service
- Units
- AKSO , ALAG , ANIA , KATM , KEFJ , LACL , NRSS , SWAN
- Keywords
- Climate Change, Forecast, freeze, Land Cover, Map, Model, Moisture, Permafrost, Plan, Precipitation, predict, scenario, Temperature, thaw, Transpiration
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Marine Communities , Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Terrestrial Complex , Ecological Framework: Human Use | Non-point Source Human Effects | Non-point Source Human Effects