Climate Change Effects on Red Spruce Decline Mitigated by Reduction in Air Pollution within its Shrinking Habitat Range
Koo K, Patten BC, Teskey RO, Creed IF. 2014. Climate Change Effects on Red Spruce Decline Mitigated by Reduction in Air Pollution within its Shrinking Habitat Range. Ecological Modelling
We investigated the potential effects of projected climate change on red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) growthin the Great Smoky Mountains of Southeastern USA. A model called Annual Radial Increment Model (ARIM) was used to capture ecosystem complexity manifested as direct and indirect effects in multi-factorial within- and across-scale interactions. The model was run under different scenarios, includingprojected climate change under reduced, no change, and increased atmospheric pollution. Modeled redspruce growth at end of 21st century (2080–2099) was compared to modeled growth at end of the 20th century (1980–1999). Red spruce growth at high elevations (≥1700 m) declined by 10.8% when climatechange interacted with a 10% increase in air pollution, but red spruce growth increased by 8.4% whenair pollution decreased by 10%. In contrast, red spruce growth at low elevations (<1700 m) declined by11.2% with a 10% increase in air pollution, 8.9% with no change, and 6.4% with a 10% decrease in air pol-lution. Our results suggest that red spruce populations at high-elevation may grow more rapidly underclimate change if air pollution decreases, but populations at low-elevation may decline irrespective ofair pollution changes as habitats shrink.
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Koo, Kyung-Ah; Patten, Bernard; Teskey, Robert; Creed, Irena
- Units
- GRSM
- Keywords
- Air Pollution, Climate Change, Forest decline, GRSM-00175, Habitat, Picea, Red Spruce
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Air and Climate | Weather and Climate | Weather and Climate , Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Forest/Woodland Communities