Modeling coastal vulnerability for freshwater tidal reaches of the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers
Elmore A. Modeling coastal vulnerability for freshwater tidal reaches of the Potomac and Anacostia Rivers. 2010-2015
The National Capital Region parks have over 70 miles of shoreline along the tidal Anacostia and Potomac Rivers. Climate change is resulting in increased global sea-levels and higher sea levels will ultimately result in increased water levels in both the tidal Anacostia and Potomac Rivers. Park units including the George Washington Memorial Parkway, National Capital Parks-East, the National Mall and Memorial Parks, the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, and Rock Creek Park all manage natural, cultural, and historical resources along these riparian corridors that are potentially at risk. Natural resources, especially plant communities, are susceptible to the detrimental impacts of rising water levels. As water levels rise, plant communities not adapted to increased inundation will likely fail making these areas more vulnerable to invasive/exotic plants and animals. In addition to what natural habitats will be impacted along the rivers, this project will attempt to determine how those habitats will change and what species of exotic plants and animals will likely benefit. It is unclear what NPS resources sea-level rise will impact and equally unclear how those habitats will respond. We will address this issue by producing high resolution elevation maps of these areas, based on LiDAR data, to accurately model the impact of sea-level on natural resources in the riparian habitats. We will model the vulnerability of these resources to asses (1) the extent and timing of potential species loss due to sea level rise and (2) the changing threat of invasion by exotic species with climate change. The ultimate goal of the project is to provide park managers with the information and decision making tools they will need to make educated decisions on how to protect existing resources and adapt to climate change, specifically sea-level rise.
- Type
- Project
- Authors
- Elmore, Andrew
- Units
- GWMP , NACE , NCR
- Keywords
- Climate Change, Freshwater, habitat change, Marshes, Sea Level Rise, Wetlands
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Riparian Communities
Products
- Spatially explicit modeling of coastal vegetation change associated with projected sea level rise: The Potomac estuary
- Modeling the Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wetland Resources of the George Washington Memorial Parkway: Dyke Marsh
- Elevation-dependent surface elevation gain in a tidal freshwater marsh and implications for marsh persistence
- Modeling the Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wetland Resources of National Capital Parks - East: Piscataway Park
- Spatially explicit modeling of coastal vegetation change associated with projected sea level rise: The Potomac estuary
- Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels