Estimating Transmission and the Basic Reproductive Rate of B. abortus in Yellowstone Bison. Technical Report for the National Park Service, December 2011.
Yellowstone Center for Resources. 2011. Estimating Transmission and the Basic Reproductive Rate of B. abortus in Yellowstone Bison. Technical Report for the National Park Service, December 2011.. YCR-2011-10. National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Yellowstone Center for Resources. Mammoth Hot Springs, Wyoming USA
b lef exposed stage for 1.97nfective stage after recovercundity with lower mediant intervention may breaowstone, management strategies tAstract Infectious diseases shape the dynamics of populations and communities of organisms. Knowl- edge of the parameters that regulate these dynamics is fundamental to building revealing models of the impacts of disease on ecological systems. We used hierarchical Bayesian techniques to estimate rates of exposure, latency, recovery, and return to the infective stage of Brucella abor- tus bacteria among Yellowstone bison (Bison bison) during 1995-2010. Eects of exposure on survival and reproduction were also estimated, and mean rates were unied in a simple SE1E2IR-model to determine the basic reproductive rate (R0) of B. abortus. The median an- nual probability of infection was 0.19, and associated continuous time force of infection was 0.21. Median probabilities of horizontal (from unrelated bison) and vertical (from mother) exposure to calves were 0.10 and 0.08, respectively, though the distribution for vertical transmission was skewedt with most of the density closer to zero. Bison remained in the years (SD = 0.67) and the duration of active infection was 1.30 years (SD = 0.19). The median probability of returning to the iing from the initial acute infection was 0.03 (0.00, 0.09). Median survival was high (0.91) and disease had lasting eects on fen probabilities of birth for infected (0.60) and recovered (0.61) animals. Our estimate of R0 was 1.2 suggesting proper managemek the infection cycle of B. abortus in bison. Given the competing interests of disease management and bison conservation in Yellhat target young females (e.g. 2-5 years of age) will be most successful at in uencing disease transmission.
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Yellowstone Center for Resources
- Date of Issue
- 2011
- Publisher
- National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Yellowstone Center for Resources
- Units
- GRYN , YELL
- Keywords
- bison, bison bison, brucella abortus, brucellosis, buffalo, Yellowstone
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Infestations and Disease | Animal Diseases , Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Mammals