Using BioBlitz data to assess bird populations across ecological gradients of Saguaro National Park: Foundations for future studies of climate change impacts. Assessing bird populations across ecological gradients of Saguaro National Park: Foundations for future studies of climate change impacts

Interannual variation and changes in climate can have significant short- and long-term effects on the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms (Parmesan 2006, Walther et al. 2002). Understanding the range, capacity, and plasticity of species' responses to climatic variation will be critical for accurate predictive models of species responses and ecological cascades of climate change effects (Malcolm et al. 2002) that may guide future management and conservation decisions. Birds can provide a useful indicator of ecological responses to climatic variation and change (Coppack & Both 2002, Cotton 2003), especially small-bodied songbirds (<20g) which experience significant physiological demands throughout their annual cycle (Berthold 1975). Like many other taxa (Parmesan 2006), a diversity of responses to climate change has been observed in birds globally (Both et al. 2006, Møller et al. 2008). Understanding the effects of climatic conditions on bird populations is particularly complex due to differential effects across latitudes (Fontaine et al. 2009) and elevations. Adaptive responses to short-term climatic variation and long-term climate change will partly depend on species' current levels of phenotypic plasticity (Bradshaw & Holsapfel 2006, Charmantier 2008). Species may exhibit phenological shifts in the timing of key life cycle 4 phases such as migration or nesting (Gordo 2007), distributional shifts (Sutherland 1998), or ecological shifts in habitat use or niche space (Kellermann In Review). The extent of this flexibility can be related to factors such as species' functional traits, or habitat breadth. These responses are poorly understood (Faaborg et al. 2010), particularly in arid regions (Skagen et al. 1997) which may experience drastic changes in response to climate (Scheffer et al. 2001) and where the magnitude of its effects on bird habitats may be incongruent with more temperate areas at higher latitudes (Fontaine et al. 2009) or ecologically equivalent higher elevations.

Using BioBlitz data to assess bird populations across ecological gradients of Saguaro National Park: Foundations for future studies of climate change impacts. Assessing bird populations across ecological gradients of Saguaro National Park: Foundations for future studies of climate change impacts

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