Assessment of marine oil spill risk and environmental vulnerability for the state of Alaska

Reich, Danielle; Balouskus, Richard; McCay, Deborah; Fontenault, Jeremy; Rowe, Jill; Singer-Leavitt, Zach; Etkin, Schmidt; Michel, Jacqueline; Nixon, Zach; Boring, Christine; McBrien, Margaret; Hay, Bernward

Alaska’s waters are rich in biological resources that are sensitive to spilled oil. These waters are also host to oil exploration/production activities and heavy vessel traffic, and are bordered by land-based facilities that transfer, store, and handle oil. This combination of sensitive resources and potential oil spill sources increases the risk of a damaging spill. In support of planning and preparation for oil spill responses, Natural Resource Damage Assessments (NRDAs), and restoration planning efforts, RPS ASA, Environmental Research Consulting (ERC), Research Planning, Inc. (RPI), and The Louis Berger Group, Inc. (LBG) were contracted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Restoration Center Northwest Region to conduct a screening-level analysis of the relative risk of oil spills to the marine waters of the state of Alaska (including the Arctic region of Alaska). The objectives of this risk analysis were to determine the probabilities of spills occurring with respect to geographic region, oil type, and season, as well as the potential impacts from an oil spill, considering oil characteristics and the vulnerability of the state’s environmental resources. This assessment involved the development of a detailed model of region- and season-specific environmental vulnerability for Alaska, which was combined with spill incident rates and potential volumes of oil spills to construct the overall risk model and determine the regions/seasons of highest relative risk. All factors contributing to risk were assessed on a broad regional basis, considering the region of origination of a potential spill (rather than oil spill trajectory and fates). The vulnerability of socioeconomic resources (such as recreation, commercial fishing, subsistence activities, cultural resources, tourism, etc.) was not included in the present risk model, but could be incorporated into future iterations. The analysis also included an assessment of future relative risk for the year 2025, based on expected changes in oil spill likelihood and volume that might occur with changes in vessel traffic, oil exploration and production activities, and the regional economy. No future projections of environmental vulnerability were calculated for this project, as projecting future trends for environmental conditions (e.g., individual species’ distributions, shoreline location/type, and ice coverage) is inherently complex and uncertain, and was beyond the scope of the current project.

Assessment of marine oil spill risk and environmental vulnerability for the state of Alaska

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