Integration of climate change vulnerability with NPS natural resource condition assessments: Applying NatureServe’s climate change vulnerability index tool

Jones, David; Handwerk, Jill; Malone, Delia; Schorr, Rob; Sovell, John; Grunau, Lee

This project examines and evaluates integration of a climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) component into the natural resource condition assessments (NRCAs) currently in development by Colorado State University for Tallgrass Prairie National Preserve, Kansas (TAPR) and Pipestone National Monument, Minnesota (PIPE). This evaluation serves as a pilot effort to help demonstrate creative and cost-effective ways to include a CCVA component in the context of NRCA projects. Vulnerability to climate change is examined using the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), a Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet tool developed by NatureServe. The CCVI is designed as a rapid-assessment tool intended to be used primarily for practical planning purposes by natural resources managers and USFWS staff and is intended to be complementary to the NatureServe Conservation Status ranks. The study is largely a qualitative process that applies the CCVI tool and framework to the following resources: the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) and federally endangered Topeka shiner (Notropis topeka) at TAPR; and the federally endangered western prairie fringed orchid (Platanthera praeclara), the federally endangered Topeka shiner, and the Sioux quartzite prairie community at PIPE. Primary sources of data included climate change projections from ClimateWizard.org, literature surveys, expert opinion and previous climate change vulnerability work in the region. A suite of vulnerability factors related to exposure and sensitivity were rated to produce a 2050 vulnerability rating for each species or community at the local park scale and at a regional/state-wide scale. Two out of five resources were considered less vulnerable to climate change at the park scale than at the statewide or regional scale. Recommendations and observations were made regarding CCVI features and use, caveats for interpreting results, and addressing information gaps and uncertainties. The results complement NRCA evaluations and inform the need or urgency to conduct more in-depth CCVAs of selected resources at individual parks. Specific recommendations for integrating vulnerability results into NRCAs include developing a Climate Change section within the NRCA to provide a comprehensive summary of historical and projected climate metrics that would directly support vulnerability assessment, including a discussion of the potential effects of climate change on natural processes and disturbance agents (e.g., fire regime), and using climate change vulnerability as one of many indicators of condition and/or trend for sensitive species and communities. Although the CCVI by itself does not provide a comprehensive vulnerability assessment for species, in conjunction with other sources of information it is a relatively straightforward and useful tool for examining the relative vulnerabilities of different species with respect to basic climate change exposure, indirect exposure to climate change, and sensitivity and documented or modeled response to climate change. Integration of climate change vulnerability into natural resource condition assessments does require additional effort and expertise that may not already be present on a given NRCA development team. However, by using the approach described above, vulnerability can be both incorporated and well integrated.

Integration of climate change vulnerability with NPS natural resource condition assessments: Applying NatureServe’s climate change vulnerability index tool

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