High-resolution permafrost modeling in the Arctic Network national parks, preserves and monuments
Panda KS, Romanovsky VE, Marchenko SS. 2016. High-resolution permafrost modeling in the Arctic Network national parks, preserves and monuments. Natural Resource Report. NPS/ARCN/NRR—2016/1366. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado
We used the GIPL 1.0 model to produce near-surface permafrost maps for the Arctic Network for different time-periods. We used CRU (1950-1959 and 2000-2009) and projected 5-GCM composite (2051-2060, and 2091-2100) decadal climate forcing, ecotype and soil landscape (Jorgenson et al 2009) maps of Arctic Network to model the presence or absence of near-surface permafrost, ground temperature at the bottom of seasonal freeze-thaw layer, and thickness of seasonal freeze-thaw layer within Arctic Network. Permafrost is considered ‘near-surface’ when present immediately below the seasonal freeze-thaw layer for the purpose of this report. We produced maps of permafrost distribution, permafrost surface temperature, and seasonal freeze-thaw layer thickness at a pixel spacing of 28.5 m. This is a great improvement over the existing permafrost maps of Arctic Network. The model predicted near-surface permafrost underneath 99% of Arctic Network during 2000s, declining to 91% by 2050s and 49% by 2090s. Thus near-surface permafrost is predicted to be degrading in half of the Arctic Network toward the end of the century. The northern half of Noatak National Preserve and Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve are predicted to have ‘stable’ near-surface permafrost even by 2090s. The output permafrost maps show the impact of changing climate on near-surface permafrost temperature and its distribution. We hope these permafrost maps help park mangers understand the current status of near-surface permafrost within Arctic Network and how it may evolve in the future with changing climate, and to identify vulnerable sites and landscape units at higher risk of permafrost thawing, with concurrent changes to wildlife habitats and ecosystem function. We hope these maps will help decision makers in better planning of monitoring programs and management of park resources.
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Panda, K.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Marchenko, Sergey
- Date of Issue
- 2016-12
- Publisher
- National Park Service
- Units
- ARCN , NRSS
- Keywords
- active layer, Alaska, arctic, climate change, modeling, permafrost