The Permafrost Prediction

Schuur, Ted

Permafrost —soil frozen year-round—is thawing widely across the Arctic. Microbes are breaking down plant and animal remains in the warming soil, releasing carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere. The Northern Hemisphere permafrost region is vast and contains about 1,450 billion metric tons of organic carbon, almost twice as much carbon as exists in Earth’s atmosphere. Data from numerous sensors suggest that 5 to 15 percent of that carbon could escape this century. At 10 percent, 130 billion to 160 billion metric tons of carbon would enter the atmosphere, accelerating global warming. Slowing overall warming is the best way to prevent permafrost from heating up.