Integrated coastal climate change vulnerability assessment: Colonial National Historical Park

Ricci, Glenn; Robadue, Donald; Rubinoff, Pam; Casey, Alanna; Babson, Amanda

A climate change vulnerability assessment which integrated issues across natural resources, cultural resources, and facility assets, was conducted between May 2016 and February 2017 for Colonial National Historical Park (NHP). This was a rapid assessment using existing data and expert knowledge to understand the general trends in vulnerability across three time frames – 2020, 2050, and 2100 – and the risk to the park’s goals. This assessment is a pilot of a method to combine these three resource types and to seek areas of integration that could increase the depth of understanding of the issues and seek opportunities for timely and sufficient action. The assessment broadly covers all of the resources in Colonial NHP and includes areas that are held by Preservation Virginia, since issues on the respective sites are similar and they have been key partners in the assessment. Findings • Colonial NHP is experiencing impacts from climate change and these impacts will increase in severity and scale. These changes could jeopardize the park’s management goals if no action is taken over the coming decades. The majority of resources will be highly vulnerable by mid-century; while climate change impacts will be ongoing through the end of the century and beyond, much damage may already have been done by the middle of this century (Figure 1). • Jamestown Island and the shoreline of the James and York River have been eroding for hundreds of years. By 2100, projections suggest much of Jamestown Island will be inundated. Roughly two-thirds of Colonial Parkway runs parallel to the York and James River shorelines, and the road structure, bridges, and culverts are at risk of erosion and resulting damage. • Of the 59 prehistoric and historic archaeological sites identified in a 1995 study of Jamestown Island, two have been entirely lost to coastal erosion and sea level rise, and another 24 have been damaged (Blanton et al. 2000; Bassett, 2016). By 2065, only two archaeological sites on Jamestown Island will be entirely above water (Bassett, 2016). Historic structures in the Yorktown Village area including Archer Cottage, and Cornwallis Cave are flooding with increasing frequency. • Common issues were identified as a way to look at shared vulnerabilities and opportunities for coordinated planning among the Cultural Resources, Natural Resources, and Facilities Divisions. The priorities targeted flooding, storm surge, and erosion of Jamestown Island, key parts of Colonial Parkway, and the Glasshouse Point complex. • Many of the park's cultural resources are vulnerable to climate change. The main challenge will be......

Integrated coastal climate change vulnerability assessment: Colonial National Historical Park

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