Describing trends in past and future soil moisture in the limy upland shrubland ecosystem in Aztec Ruins National Monument

Andrews, Caitlin; Bradford, John; Norris, Jodi; Gremer, Jennifer; Duniway, Michael; Munson, Seth; Thomas, Lisa; Swan, Megan

Variation in the structure and function of Colorado Plateau ecosystems is driven by seasonal moisture availability in the soil profile; however, the availability of soil moisture is expected to change in the coming decades as a result of climate change. To understand how ecosystems will be affected by this, we need to understand in more detail how these soil moisture patterns relate to plant productivity, and what changes in soil moisture are expected, both seasonally and at the range of soil depths that plants are adapted to use. We used a soil water model (SOILWAT2) to estimate historical, current, and future soil water availability in 300 vegetation monitoring plots in 13 ecosystems in the Southern Colorado Plateau Network of the National Park Service. In Aztec Ruins National Monument, this included six vegetation monitoring plots within the limy upland shrubland ecosystem. The SOILWAT2 model used plot-specific vegetation and soil core data collected as part of the Southern Colorado Plateau Network’s long-term upland vegetation monitoring program to represent the environment. Model simulations were run using climate data from the past (1916–2011) to provide historical context, the present (1980-2015) to create a current baseline for comparison. Model simulations were also run for two time periods in the future: a near-term period (2020-2059) and a long-term period (2060-2099). The future projections were made using nine general circulation models under two possible greenhouse gas emissions pathways: the 8.5 representative concentration pathway (RCP), and the 4.5 RCP. Results of the 8.5 RCP simulations are presented here; this pathway corresponds to a comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The soil-water model results provide a detailed look at historical patterns of soil water availability, and how soil water availability is projected to change in the future, both seasonally and at different soil depths. Model output included daily soil water potential estimates at multiple depths within the soil profile. This report describes results at intermediate (20-50 cm) depths. A second goal of this work was to better understand how changes in seasonal soil water availability might affect vegetation. To do this we examined how vegetation today is affected by seasonal differences in soil moisture by calculating correlations of annual NDVI (2001-2014) with soil water potential averaged over a range of moving windows. Key findings for the Aztec Ruins NM limy upland shrubland ecosystem include the following: All of the climate models predicted increases in mean monthly and annual temperature in the near-term future (+2.4°C on average), and further increases in the long-term future (+5.2°C on average). Future precipitation predictions were more variable, except for June, for which low precipitation is consistently predicted. Future soil water availability is projected to decline, particularly in the spring. By the end of the 21st century, average spring soil water potential is expected to drop below -3.0 MPa, indicating conditions of extreme water scarcity. The drying of soils in spring is predicted to occur earlier in both the near-term and long-term future, and will shorten the period when soils are moist during the spring growing season. This will likely have a substantial impact on plant species that rely on soil moisture during this time of year. Productivity, as estimated by annual NDVI, is most strongly correlated to soil water potential in the mid to late spring, underscoring the importance of soil moisture during this time period.

Describing trends in past and future soil moisture in the limy upland shrubland ecosystem in Aztec Ruins National Monument

Series

Collections