Describing trends in past and future soil moisture in the loamy mesa-top pinyon-juniper woodland ecosystem in Mesa Verde National Park

Andrews, Caitlin; Bradford, John; Norris, Jodi; Gremer, Jennifer; Duniway, Michael; Munson, Seth; Thomas, Lisa; Swan, Megan

Variation in the structure and function of Colorado Plateau ecosystems is driven by seasonal moisture availability in the soil pro-file; however, the availability of soil moisture is expected to change in the coming decades as a result of climate change. To understand how ecosystems will be affected by this, we need to understand in more detail how these soil moisture patterns relate to plant productivity, and what changes in soil moisture are expected, both seasonally and at the range of soil depths that plants are adapted to use. We used a soil water model (SOILWAT2) to estimate historical, current, and future soil water availability in 300 vegetation monitoring plots in 13 ecosystems in the Southern Colorado Plateau Network of the National Park Service. In Mesa Verde National Park, this included 31 vegetation monitoring plots within the loamy mesa-top pinyon-juniper woodland ecosystem. The SOILWAT2 model used plot-specific vegetation and soil core data collected as part of the Southern Colorado Plateau Network’s long-term upland vegetation monitoring program to represent the environment. Model simulations were run using climate data from the past (1916–2011) to provide historical context, the present (1980-2015) to create a current baseline for comparison. Model simulations were also run for two time periods in the future: a near-term period (2020-2059) and a long-term period (2060-2099). The future projections were made using nine general circulation models under two possible greenhouse gas emissions pathways: the 8.5 representative concentration pathway (RCP), and the 4.5 RCP. Results of the 8.5 RCP simulations are presented here; this pathway corresponds to a comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The soil-water model results provide a de-tailed look at historical patterns of soil water availability, and how soil water availability is projected to change in the future, both seasonally and at different soil depths. Model output included daily soil water potential estimates at multiple depths within the soil profile. This report describes results at intermediate (20–50 cm) soil depths. A second goal of this work was to better understand how changes in seasonal soil water availability might affect vegetation. To do this, we initially examined how vegetation today is affected by seasonal differences in soil moisture by calculating correlations of annual NDVI (2001-2014) with soil water potential averaged over a range of moving windows. However, recent work (Norris and Walker, in review) has shown that the NDVI values in most pinyon-juniper eco-systems do not correspond with vegetation greenness. Therefore those analyses were discarded.

Describing trends in past and future soil moisture in the loamy mesa-top pinyon-juniper woodland ecosystem in Mesa Verde National Park

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