Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.
Clark JS, Andrus R, Aubry-Kientz M, Bergeron Y, Bogdziewicz M, Bragg DC, Brockway D, Cleavitt NL, Cohen S, Courbaud B, Daley R, Das AJ, Dietze M, Fahey TJ, Fer I, Franklin JF, Gehring CA, Gilbert GS, Greenberg CH, Guo Q, HilleRisLambers J, Ibanez I, Johnstone J, Kilner CL, Knops J, Koenig WD, Kunstler G, LaMontagne JM, Legg KL, Luongo J, Lutz JA, Macias D, McIntire EJ, Messaoud Y, Moore CM, Moran E, Myers JA, Myers OB, Nunez C, Parmenter R, Pearse S, Pearson S, Poulton-Kamakura R, Ready E, Redmond MD, Reid CD, Rodman KC, Scher CL, Schlesinger WH, Schwantes AM, Shanahan E, Sharma S, Steele MA, Stephenson NL, Sutton S, J. Swenson JJ, Swift M, Veblen TT, Whipple AV, Whitham TG, Wion AP, Zhu K, Zlotin R. 2021. Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.. Nature Communications. 12(1242):1-11
Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Clark, James; Andrus, Robert; Aubry-Kientz, Melaine; Bergeron, Yves; Bogdziewicz, Michal; Bragg, Don; Brockway, Dale; Cleavitt, Natalie; Cohen, Susan; Courbaud, Benoit; Daley, Robert; Das, Adrian; Dietze, Michael; Fahey, Timothy; Fer, Istem; Franklin, Jerry; Gehring, Catherine; Gilbert, Gregory; Greenberg, Cathryn; Guo, Qinfeng; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Ibanez, Ines; Johnstone, Jill; Kilner, Christopher; Knops, Johannes; Koenig, Walter; Kunstler, Georges; LaMontagne, Jalene; Legg, Kristin; Luongo, Jordan; Lutz, James; Macias, Diana; McIntire, Eliot; Messaoud, Yassine; Moore, Christopher; Moran, Emily; Myers, Jonathan; Myers, Orrin; Nunez, Chase; Parmenter, Robert; Pearse, Sam; Pearson, Scott; Poulton-Kamakura, Renata; Ready, Ethan; Redmond, Miranda; Reid, Chantal; Rodman, Kyle; Scher, C; Schlesinger, William; Schwantes, Amanda; Shanahan, Erin; Sharma, Shubhi; Steele, Michael; Stephenson, Nathan; Sutton, Samantha; J. Swenson, Jennifer; Swift, Margaret; Veblen, Thomas; Whipple, Amy; Whitham, Thomas; Wion, Andreas; Zhu, Kai; Zlotin, Roman
- Units
- GRTE , GRYN , JODR , VALL , YELL