Climate change scenario planning to guide research and resource management at White Sands National Park

Benjamin, Pamela; Schuurman, Gregor; Bustos, David; Reiser, M; Olliff, Tom; Runyon, Amber

doi:10.36967/nrr-2286585

White Sands National Park (WHSA), located in the northern portion of the Chihuahuan Desert, protects 40 percent (115 square miles [mi2]) of the 275-mi2 White Sands dune field (Kocurek et al. 2006)—the world’s largest gypsum dune field. The dune field is classified as a wet aeolian system that is intricately tied to both surface and groundwater hydrological processes. Wet sediments are found just below dune surfaces, and groundwater typically occurs at a depth of just a few feet below the base of the dunes. This unique system supports a diverse array of plants and wildlife, including many endemic species. Primary ecosystem drivers for the dune field include precipitation, groundwater hydrology, winds, floods, and droughts. Alterations in temperatures and precipitation, as are expected with ongoing change in climatic conditions, can significantly alter geologic and biological systems in the park. Most climate models project a temperature increase in the southwestern US, whereas projected precipitation changes among models include both decreases and increases. An on-site weather station in the park shows an overall precipitation increase since 1950. The challenge for the park is how best to 1) steward park resources in an era of rapid, directional change in fundamental drivers of ecological condition, and 2) encourage research approaches that support and enhance understanding of key vulnerabilities. To better inform both short- and long-term resource management and research activities, the park, the region, the National Park Service (NPS) Chihuahuan Desert Inventory and Monitoring Network (CHDN), the New Mexico State Climatologist’s Office, several academic institutions, and the NPS Climate Change Response Program worked together to design and conduct the White Sands Scenario Planning Workshop in June 2017. Workshop participants included a range of experts on climate, hydrology, and ecology from several academic institutions, as well as the park, New Mexico State Climatologist’s Office, and the Chihuahuan Desert Inventory and Monitoring Network. The WHSA workshop used a refined, qualitative climate change scenario planning approach focused on expert opinion and synthesis of pre-existing science, and solicited expert opinion from the group via a structured process to identify and/or hypothesize impacts to resources under three divergent but plausible climate futures: 1) Warm/No Precipitation Change, 2) Hot and Wet and 3) Hot and Dry This process of identifying resource vulnerabilities under each climate future not only developed a set of robust climate-resource scenarios to help guide management, but also identified key potential vulnerabilities that need to be better understood. Specifically, wherever participants identified a potential adverse impact to a resource under a given scenario (see Table 2) but indicated low certainty about that resource’s vulnerability, a potential resource-specific research need has been identified.

Climate change scenario planning to guide research and resource management at White Sands National Park

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