Testing the transferability of the optimal preservation model at Gulf Islands National Seashore

Seekamp, Erin; Xiao, Xiao; van der Burg, Max; Eaton, Mitchell

doi:10.36967/nrr-2287401

Project Rationale This is an exploratory study that can inform decisions, but does not prescribe specific actions, nor does it take the place of other required decision-making steps or processes. The impacts predicted in a changing climate pose challenges to cultural resource management. In coastal environments, cultural resources are particularly vulnerable to ground-related flooding and erosion from storm-related events and sea level rise. The extent of impacts from these weather and climatic events are dependent upon the sensitivity of the materials that comprise the cultural resources, as well as the exposure of the cultural resources on the landscape. Moreover, fiscal constraints limit the extent to which cultural resources can be maintained (as evidenced by ongoing deferred maintenance issues) and adapted. Current policy guidance for the National Park Service (NPS) states that the agency “will prioritize cultural resource funding and management actions on projects that integrate vulnerability and resource significance” (NPS 2014). Study Purpose In this report, we present an application of the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model, a climate adaptation planning and decision support framework for historic structures, at Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS). The purpose of the study was to test the transferability of the OptiPres Model to another coastal site managed by the NPS, following a successful pilot test at Cape Lookout National Seashore (CALO) (see: Seekamp and others 2019). Additionally, the application of the OptiPres Model at GUIS allows the assessment of how well the model functions for multiple types of structures: wooden buildings, and masonry buildings, forts and batteries. Study Location This study included 28 structures located within the historical context of the Pensacola Harbor Defense Project Historic District, Fort Pickens unit, at GUIS. These structures have experienced considerable and repeated historical flooding, many of which have sustained considerable damage during storm events. These sensitivities and their location on Santa Rosa Island (exposure) make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts associated with the accelerating climate variability (Peek et al. 2015). As such, park managers are challenged to meet historic preservation planning goals not only by fiscal constraints but surmounting vulnerabilities, making prioritization of adaptation actions a critical need. Methodology Model Overview The OptiPres Model examines funding allocation decisions for maximizing the resource value (i.e., historical significance and use potential) of historic structures across a 30-year planning horizon, while considering climate change vulnerabilities, costs of adaptation actions, and fiscal constraints. Additionally, the OptiPres Model incorporates dynamics that mimic how management decisions, including no action and adaptation actions, affect the resource value and vulnerability of a historic structure. It is important to note that the OptiPres Model is not designed to be a prescriptive planning and decision support framework. Rather, the OptiPres Model enables insights regarding the tradeoffs that would be necessary to maximize the accumulated resource value of all historic structures within a specified landscape under different fiscal allocation scenarios. Using an optimization algorithm, the OptiPres Model evaluates trade-offs between: • Investing in actions that maintain or preserve resources in situ, • Investing in actions that preserve a structure by elevating it higher than its original location, • Making triage decisions to free-up resources for more costly actions, or • Making triage decisions that shift management attention from one type of historical resource to other types of historical resources. Model Updates This application of the OptiPres Model also included GUIS staff perceptions of the relative importance of the...

Testing the transferability of the optimal preservation model at Gulf Islands National Seashore

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