Regional land-cover conversion in the U.S. upper Midwest: magnitude of change and limited recovery (1850–1935–1993)

Rhemtulla, Jeanine; Mladenoff, David; Clayton, Murray

Land-use legacies can persist for hundreds to thousands of years, influencing plant species composition, nutrient cycling, water flows, and climate. To understand how land use has affected regional land-cover composition in Wisconsin (USA), we assessed the magnitude and direction of change in land cover between: (1)c.1850, at the onset of Euro-American settlement; (2) c.1935, the period of maximum clearing for agriculture following widespread forest logging; and (3) 1993, which, especially in northern Wisconsin, follows farm abandonment and forest recovery. We derived land-cover maps using U.S. Public Land Survey records (c.1850), the Wisconsin Land Economic Inventory (c.1935), and Landsat TM satellite data (1993). We stratified Wisconsin (145,000 km2) into two ecological provinces and used spatial error models, multinomial logistic regression, and non-metric multi-dimensional scaling ordination to examine change. Between 1850 and 1935, forest cover in the North declined from 84% to 56%, cropland increased to 24%, and mixed/coniferous forests and savannas were replaced by deciduous forests. In the South, formerly dominant savannas (69%) and prairies (6%) were mostly converted to cropland (51%) and pasture (11%). Remnant deciduous savannas and coniferous forests and savannas were replaced by deciduous forests. Remarkably little recovery to pre-settlement land-cover classes occurred from 1935 to 1993. Less cropland was abandoned than expected, and there was little net gain in coniferous/mixed forest. Based on these general land-cover classes, current cover is significantly different from that in 1850, but not from that in 1935, and thus continues to reflect historical logging and agricultural patterns. These results provide a historical framework for measuring associated changes in ecosystem function and can be used to guide restoration where desirable and feasible.