Microclimate‐based Species Distribution Models in Complex Forested Terrain Indicate Widespread Cryptic Refugia under Climate Change
Stark JR and Fridley JD. 2022. Microclimate‐based Species Distribution Models in Complex Forested Terrain Indicate Widespread Cryptic Refugia under Climate Change. Global Ecology and Biogeography
CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that careful selection of climate drivers, including local near-ground validation rather than downscaling solely with elevation, is critical for projecting distributions. They also suggest that some species at risk from climate change might persist, even with 4°C of macroclimate warming, in cryptic refugia buffered by microclimate, pointing to the roles of forest cover and topography in explaining slower-than-expected changes in understorey communities. However, certain species, such as those currently occurring on low-elevation ridges that are sensitive to atmospheric changes, may be at more risk than macroclimate or downscaled climate SDMs suggest.
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Stark, Jordan; Fridley, Jason
- Units
- GRSM
- Keywords
- climate change, climate refugia, forest ecosystem, GRSM-02091, microclimate, moisture regimes, species distribution, thermal regimes