Climate change vulnerability assessment for rare plants in Shenandoah National Park
Cutherell DL and Cass WB. 2022. Climate change vulnerability assessment for rare plants in Shenandoah National Park. Natural Resource Report. NPS/SHEN/NRR—2022/2405. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado. https://doi.org/10.36967/nrr-2291914
Shenandoah National Park contains 56 state-rare plant species, eight of which are also globally rare. Efforts to conserve the Park’s rare plants have focused on current threats such as human impacts, invasive species, and forest succession, but have not yet taken into account the effects that climate change will have on individual species and communities. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was used to assess the vulnerability of each species to climate change in order to inform and prioritize future management of rare plants. Results calculated by the CCVI suggest that 27 species are highly or extremely vulnerable to climate change. Most of these are found at high elevations in the Central District of the Park in wetlands, rock outcrops, and meadows. Sensitivity to temperature and moisture availability, as well as geology, dispersal, and genetic factors were important in determining vulnerability scores. Future management of rare plant populations should prioritize individual species and communities that are threatened both by climate change and other factors such as human impacts and invasive species. However, as predicted changes in temperature cause species’ ranges to shift northward, some species may be lost from the Park despite efforts to preserve them.
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Cutherell, David; Cass, Wendy
- Date of Issue
- 2022-06
- Publisher
- National Park Service
- DOI
- 10.36967/nrr-2291914
- Units
- MIDN , NRSS , SHEN
- Keywords
- climate change, climate sensitivity, ranking, Rare plants, rock outcrop, vulnerability index
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Sparsely Vegetated Communities , Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Grassland/Herbaceous Communities , Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Forest/Woodland Communities