Climate-Smart Conservation of Western Snowy Plovers: A Spatial-Analytic Approach
Neuman K, Nur N, Barbaree B, Lau M, Veloz S. 2021. Climate-Smart Conservation of Western Snowy Plovers: A Spatial-Analytic Approach. National Park Service. Petaluma, CA
The Pacific coast population of the western snowy plover is highly vulnerable to climate change, primarily because rising sea levels are predicted to greatly alter coastal beaches over the next century. To maintain viable snowy plover populations, it is essential to determine how snowy plovers are likely to respond to predicted changes in sea level, habitat, and climate. In this study we used long-term plover and climate data sets within a GIS framework to analyze the relationship between snowy plover reproductive success (hatching and fledging success) at two major study areas (Point Reyes National Seashore and Monterey Bay), a single measure of beach habitat (distance of a plover nest from mean high water), and two climate variables (temperature, precipitation). Hatching success did not vary significantly between the two major study areas but did show significant variation among the group locations (smaller subregions) within each major area. Fledging success did not vary significantly between the two major study areas but did show significant variation among the group locations within each major area and like hatching success, was significantly influenced by clutch initiation date. The results of this study suggest that a warming climate will result in countervailing forces on the two reproductive rates that we examined, with hatching rates decreasing and fledging rates increasing. It also highlights the potential causal mechanism of increased risk of nest predation caused by warming and the potential gains in hatching success from using exclosures that could help to offset warming effects.
- Type
- Unpublished Report
- Authors
- Neuman, Kriss; Nur, Nadav; Barbaree, Blake; Lau, Matt; Veloz, Sam
- Date of Issue
- 2021-09
- Publisher
- National Park Service
- Units
- PORE
- Keywords
- climate change, plovers, sea level rise, western snowy plover
- Subjects
- Ecological Framework: Geology and Soils | Geomorphology | Coastal/Oceanographic Features and Processes , Ecological Framework: Biological Integrity | Focal Species or Communities | Birds