Climate-resource scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Summary of 2021 climate change scenario planning
Runyon AN, Schuurman GW, Robb BC, Littell J, Miller ME, Reynolds JH. 2024. Climate-resource scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Summary of 2021 climate change scenario planning. Natural Resource Report. NPS/WRST/NRR—2024/2613. National Park Service. Fort Collins, Colorado. https://doi.org/10.36967/2301920
This report illustrates use of scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool supporting Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve’s Resource Stewardship Strategy. The primary objective of scenario planning is to help resource managers and scientists make management and planning decisions informed by assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report outlines a process that synthesized future climate projections into three distinct but plausible and relevant climate summaries for the focal area and used them to develop climate-resource scenarios through participatory scenario planning. Initial steps identified the priority resource management topics and the corresponding related climate uncertainties. Next, local climate summaries were used to develop divergent climate futures: those that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions while capturing relevant uncertainty. The final phase further developed the climate futures and their resource implications. These participatory scenario planning exercises occurred virtually in fall (August–November) 2021. The climate-resource scenarios informed adaptation strategies in conjunction with the park’s Resource Stewardship Strategy development. The scope and complexity of this effort is unique but elements from the scenarios and resource implications have broad applicability to other large, protected areas in Alaska and Northwest Canada.
- Type
- Published Report
- Authors
- Runyon, Amber; Schuurman, Gregor; Robb, Brecken; Littell, Jeremy; Miller, Mark; Reynolds, Joel
- Date of Issue
- 2024-01
- Publisher
- National Park Service
- DOI
- 10.36967/2301920
- Units
- CCRP , WRST
- Keywords
- Alaska region, climate change, climate change adaptation, climate futures, climate impacts, climate projections, climate risk, climate-resource scenarios, cultural resources, exposure, natural resources, planning, Resource Stewardship Strategy, scenario planning, scenario-based climate change adaptation, sensitivity, subsistence, vulnerability assessment