The impact of sea level rise during nor’easters in New England: Acadia National Park, Boston Harbor Islands, Boston National Historical Park, and Cape Cod National Seashore

Ginis, Isaac; Crowley, Deborah; Stempel, Peter; Babson, Amanda

This study examines the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) caused by climate change on the effects of extratropical cyclones, also known as nor’easters, in four New England coastal parks: Acadia National Park (ACAD), Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA), Boston National Historical Park (BOST) and Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO). A multi-method approach is employed, including a literature review, observational data analysis, coupled hydrodynamic-wave numerical modeling, 3D visualizations, and communication of findings. The literature review examines previous studies of nor’easters and associated storm surges in New England and SLR projections across the study domain due to climate change. The observational data analysis evaluates the characteristics of nor’easters and their effects, providing a basis for validating the model. Numerical modeling is performed using the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, coupled with the Simulating Waves in the Nearshore (SWAN) model to simulate storm surges and waves. The model was validated against available observations and demonstrated its ability to simulate water levels, inland inundation, and wave heights in the study area with high accuracy. The validated model was used to simulate three powerful nor’easters (April 2007, January 2018, and March 2018) and each storm was simulated for three sea levels, (1) a baseline mean sea level representative of the year 2020, as well as with a (2) 1 ft of SLR and (3) 1 m of SLR. Analysis of the model output was used to assess the vulnerability of the parks to nor’easters by examining peak impacts in the park areas. Additional simulations were conducted to evaluate the role of waves in predicting peak water levels and the impact of inlet configurations on storm surges within coastal embayments behind the barrier beach systems in the southern Cape Cod region. The project developed maps, three-dimensional visualizations, and an interpretive film to assist the parks in planning for resource management, maintenance, emergency management, visitor access, safety, education, and outreach. These tools provide a better understanding of the potential impacts of nor’easters and SLR and enable the parks to better prepare for future storms.

The impact of sea level rise during nor’easters in New England: Acadia National Park, Boston Harbor Islands, Boston National Historical Park, and Cape Cod National Seashore

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