Modeling Peak Photosynthesis in the Great Smoky Mountains

Diaz, Crystal; Torres, Rachel

ABSTRACT: The effects of climate change are altering phenology, the seasonal timing of plant growth patterns, in the Northern Hemisphere. The Great Smoky Mountains (GSM) is a deciduous forest located in southern Appalachia, situated between North Carolina and Tennessee. Spring temperatures in the GSM can vary significantly from year to year. Using National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) datasets for precipitation and temperature in March, I will predict when peak Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) will occur. GCC is a spectral metric for identifying the amount of greenness in an RGB image of vegetation, used to track changes of leaf growth and identify timing of new growth in Spring. GCC timing can also be used for identifying when maximum photosynthesis is occurring, which affects the overall ecosystem. I hypothesize that the higher temperatures and more rainfall in March will affect the onset of peak vegetation growth to occur earlier in the year. Forecasting the effects of climate on phenology is important for land management decisions and understanding how climate change will affect ecosystems moving forward.