Assessing uncertainty in ecological systems using global sensitivity analyses: a case example of simulated wolf reintroduction effects on elk
Fieberg J and Jenkins KJ. 2005. Assessing uncertainty in ecological systems using global sensitivity analyses: a case example of simulated wolf reintroduction effects on elk. Ecological Modelling. 187:259-280
From the Abstract: "Often landmark conservation decisions are made despite an incomplete knowledge of system behavior and inexact predictions of how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions. For example, predicting the feasibility and likely effects of restoring top-level carnivores such as the gray wolf (Canis lupus) to North American wilderness areas is hampered by incomplete knowledge of the predator-prey system processes and properties. ... Here we illustrate the use of Sobol' sensitivity indices to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty on the predicted decline of elk (Cervus elaphus) population sizes following a hypothetical reintroduction of wolves to Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. The strength of density dependence acting on survival of adult elk and the magnitude of predation were the most influential factors controlling elk population size following a simulated wolf reintroduction."
- Type
- Journal Article
- Authors
- Fieberg, John; Jenkins, Kurt
- Units
- OLYM
- Keywords
- Animal Studies, Cervus elaphus roosevelti (Canadian Wapiti Olympic Elk Roosevelt Wapiti), Modeling, sensitivity analysis, wolf reintroduction