Hurricane Impacts on the Caribbean Coastal/Marine Environment: Using Scientific Assessment to Plan for the Future

Aubrey, D; Giese, Graham; Burdick, David; Agardy, M; Haney, J; Gable, F

Study of the impacts of Hurricane Hugo with the ideas that 1) the marine ecosystem is shaped by severe episodic events and that 2) the impact from these events is increased by human-caused degradation of the environment. Covers a large area. Includes a brief section describing the effects on St. John & St. Croix (part of a trip report). Also a more in depth section titled "Effect of Hurricane Hugo and Subsequent Recovery of Coastal Landforms and Plant Communities on St. Croix, U. S. V. I." by David M. Burdick & Graham S. Giese (described in more detail in a separate record in this database). Abstract: The passage of Hurricane Hugo through the eastern Caribbean provided a unique opportunity for multidisciplinary study of (1) the effects of severe storms on tropical coastal and marine ecosystems, and (2) the physical and biological responses of those ecosystems to intense storm-induced changes. In addition to its direct value as basic science, this study can be used to facilitate development of improved coastal and marine resource management capabilities. Executive Summary: Hurricane Hugo wreaked havoc on coastal and marine ecosystems in the Caribbean; some of the damage will persist for years to come. Although hurricanes and tropical storms are natural episodic events, impacts from recent hurricanes may have been exacerbated by poorly planned development, previously stressed coastal ecosystems, and careless recovery efforts. Since some global climate models project future increases in both the frequency and severity of tropical storms and hurricanes, it is time that we learn from our past experiences to brace for the future. Cross-comparison with data from other major hurricanes (including Gilbert and Allen) will allow us to generate a larger and more meaningful data set. We wish to test two hypotheses: 1) that marine ecosystem structure is shaped by severe episodic events, 2) that the impact from these events is accentuated when ecosystem stress causes pre-existing degradation of the coastal environment. The information garnered from this research will allow us to develop models which forecast large-scale ecosystem effects from tropical storms. The testing of the hypotheses and data analyses/model generation will require careful ecological and physical measurements of impact and recovery across many scales of ecosystem structure. A multi-disciplinary effort is required to achieve such a comprehensive assessment. The ultimate objective is to determine the relationship between episodic events and the structure of marine ecosystems in order to provide guidance for use and management of marine resources.