Earthquakes cannot be predicted

Geller, Robert; Jackson, David; Kagan, Yan; Mulargia, Francesco

'Earthquake prediction is usually defined as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of a future earthquake within stated limits. Prediction would have to be reliable (few false alarms and few failures) and accurate (small ranges of uncertainty in space, time, and magnitude) to justify the cost of response. Previous Perspectives in Science may have given a favorable impression of prediction research, and the news media and some optimistic scientists encourage the belief that earthquakes can be predicted (1). Recent research suggests to us that this belief is incorrect. . . . 'Seismology can, however, contribute to earthquake hazard mitigation. Statistical estimates of the seismicity expected in a general region on a time scale of 30 to 100 years (22) [as opposed to 'long-term predictions' of specific earthquakes on particular faults within a few years (23)] and statistical estimates of the expected strong ground motion are important data for designing earthquake-resistant structures. Rapid determination of source parameters (such as location and magnitude) can facilitate relief efforts after large earthquakes. Warnings of tsunamis (seismic sea waves) produced by earthquakes also contribute significantly to public safety. These are areas where earthquake research can greatly benefit the public.'

Earthquakes cannot be predicted

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