Predicting Rare Plant Distribution Patterns in the Southern Appalachians of the South-Eastern U. S. A.

Miller, Ronald

The distribution of the rare and endangered vascular plants in the southern Appalachians are analysed with the development of a computerized sampling methodology. Maps are presented that document the distribution of these species in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park (GSMNP) and in the southern Appalachians region of the United States. The diversities of elevations, slopes and aspects are quantified across the region from digitized topographic data. Influence analysis is used to determine the relative strength of the species-area relation in the region. Influence analysis is also used to estimate the resilience of each of the topographic models for predicting rare and endangered vascular plant species richness across the region. The distribution of unique habitats in the national park is quantified and the predictive significance of each feature is determined. A method is presented for predicting species richness, independent of the species-area effect, by factoring the influence of this effect from the species richness variable. The species-area relation for rare vascular plants is strongest in GSMNP and significantly weaker in the southern Appalachians region overall. Elevation diversity is shown to be an important predictor of species richness in this plant group throughout the region.

Predicting Rare Plant Distribution Patterns in the Southern Appalachians of the South-Eastern U. S. A.

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